The framework
Captain = (form × 0.4) + (role-fit × 0.3) + (venue × 0.2) + (matchup × 0.1). Vice-captain = captain × 0.7, on a different role line. Differential = selection % under 10% × expected impact. The framework doesn't change between formats; the inputs do.
Step 1 — form
Form is the last-five window, weighted by role. Strike rate, economy, average — all role-relative. The desk does not use single-inning hype.
Step 2 — role-fit
Role-fit is the match between the player's role and the team's need. A top-order batter at the powerplay is high role-fit on a T20; a middle-order accumulator is high role-fit on an ODI.
Step 3 — venue
Venue is the home/away and surface record. A pace bowler at a green seamer is high venue-fit; a spinner at a dry turner is high venue-fit.
Step 4 — matchup
Matchup is the head-to-head against the opponent's primary bowler type. A left-handed top-order batter against a right-arm pace attack is high matchup. The math is small, the impact is real.
Common mistakes
Three mistakes cost more than any other: (1) picking accumulators as T20 openers, (2) picking death-overs pacers on a slow turner, (3) using vice-captain on the same role line as captain. The desk publishes a checklist for each.
Reading the form laboratory
The form arrow is the average of strike-rate and dismissal count over the last-five window. Up means above the player's career average; down means below; flat means the window is too small to call. The desk never publishes a read on a flat arrow unless the role-fit is exceptional.
The math, in one line
Captain = (form × 0.4) + (role-fit × 0.3) + (venue × 0.2) + (matchup × 0.1). The weights are fixed. The inputs change. The captain lock is the highest-scoring player on the math; the differential is a player who scores above the threshold but is selected by fewer than 10% of users; the hedge is the player on a different role line whose role-fit is strong enough to compensate for a captain collapse.
Form is the last-five window, weighted by role. For a top-order batter, form is strike rate and dismissal count. For an all-rounder, form is runs and wickets. For a pace bowler, form is economy and wicket count. The form column on the desk is role-relative — a top-order batter's 30 off 25 is not the same as a death-overs batter's 30 off 12. The form arrow (up, flat, down) is the average of the role-relative form, not the absolute form.
Role fit, 0 to 10
Role fit is the match between the player's role and the team's need. A top-order batter at the powerplay is high role-fit in T20. A middle-order accumulator in the middle overs is high role-fit in ODI. A spinner on a turner is high role-fit in Test. The role-fit score is on a 0–10 scale, with a short note on the math behind the score.
Venue
Venue is the home/away and surface record. A pace bowler at a green seamer is high venue-fit. A spinner at a dry turner is high venue-fit. A batter at a flat deck is high venue-fit. The venue score is the average of the last-five venue-specific matches, not the career average.
Matchup
Matchup is the head-to-head against the opponent's primary bowler type. A left-handed top-order batter against a right-arm pace attack is high matchup. A right-handed middle-order batter against a left-arm spinner is high matchup. The math is small, the impact is real.
Common mistakes
Three mistakes cost more than any other. (1) Picking accumulators as T20 openers — the boundary economy rewards intent at the powerplay, not anchor-and-accelerate. (2) Picking death-overs pacers on a slow turner — the wicket doesn't reward pace, the wicket rewards spin and accuracy. (3) Using vice-captain on the same role line as captain — the hedge should diversify, not double up.
Tactical adjustments
Three tactical adjustments make the difference. (1) Read the impact-player slot — if the team has named an impact player in advance, treat the slot as a captain's cheque, not a 12th player. (2) Watch the keeper's role — a specialist keeper at 7 or higher is a batting-heavy side; a keeper at 9 is a bowling-heavy side with a pinch-hitter option. (3) Count the all-rounders — three or more genuine all-rounders signals a balanced side; two with a tail of bowlers signals a stacked batting order.
Try the framework on today's team
Captain, vice-captain and differential — the desk's framework in your pocket.
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The form laboratory carries the last-five window for every player in the desk's coverage. The window is role-relative — a top-order batter's 30 off 25 is not the same as a death-overs batter's 30 off 12. The form arrow is the average of the role-relative form, not the absolute form. The form laboratory is the desk's evidence base — every captain read, differential, and hedge is built on the form laboratory, the role-fit score, the venue record, and the matchup score.
Role fit in detail
Role fit is the match between a player's role and the team's need. The desk publishes a role-fit score on a 0-10 scale, with a short note on the math behind the score. The role-fit score is the second input to the captain math. The role-fit score is on the form laboratory, the predictions desk, and the captain evidence desk.
Venue record in detail
Venue record is the home/away and surface record, averaged over the last five venue-specific matches. A pace bowler at a green seamer is high venue-fit. A spinner at a dry turner is high venue-fit. The venue score is the third input to the captain math. The venue record is on the form laboratory, the predictions desk, and the captain evidence desk.
Matchup in detail
Matchup is the head-to-head against the opponent's primary bowler type. A left-handed top-order batter against a right-arm pace attack is high matchup. The matchup score is the fourth input to the captain math. The matchup score is on the form laboratory, the predictions desk, and the captain evidence desk.
Extended reading
The fantasy tips chapter is a working guide, not a tip sheet. The form laboratory is the desk's evidence base. The captain evidence desk is the desk's picks. The three are designed to be read together — a tip without a form laboratory is a tip without evidence; a form laboratory without a tip is evidence without a play. The desk's editorial system is the three, not any one alone.
Consider a top-order batter with form 50 (last-five strike rate), role-fit 8 (top-order in T20), venue 7 (home), and matchup 6 (against a right-arm pace attack). The captain score is 50×0.4 + 8×0.3 + 7×0.2 + 6×0.1 = 20 + 2.4 + 1.4 + 0.6 = 24.4. The threshold for captain lock is 22. The threshold for differential is 18 with selection-percentage under 10%. The threshold for hedge is 18 with role line different.
Vice-captain = captain × 0.7, on a different role line. The math is the same form-fit-venue-matchup stack, with a 0.7 multiplier and a different role line. The hedge is on a different role line by design. The desk's editorial line is the same — match context, player form, captain reads.
Differential = selection-percentage < 10% × expected impact. The expected impact is the captain score × role-relative impact. The desk publishes the formula on this page. The desk's editorial line is the same — match context, player form, captain reads.